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Our approach makes use of high-resolution climate modeling tools, capable of simulating air temperature and humidity levels at a resolution of up to 100m (approximately one city block), to model heat exposure across diverse urban microclimates in response to current land use conditions. Use of an urban scale climate model supports the development of a series of urban heat management scenarios, in which tree canopy and cool roofing materials may be varied by neighborhood. This approach further supports the estimation of stormwater runoff by climate adaptation scenario. Epidemiological models estimating health impacts accompany each scenario to help guide policy decisions and outcomes. Sample assessment output is presented in the following figures.

High Resolution Air Temperature Modeling

Climate model output (average daily air temperature) for Atlanta, Georgia in June, July, August at 100m. Left panel presents current conditions; right panel simulates air temperatures in response to a minimum 60% tree canopy cover per neighborhood. Warm colors denote higher temperatures.

Neighborhood-Scale Health Impact Estimation

Estimated heat-related mortality by neighborhood in Atlanta over June, July, August. Left panel presents heat-related mortality under current conditions; right panel presents heat-related mortality in response to a minimum 60% tree canopy cover goal per neighborhood. Warm colors denote higher rates of heat-related mortality.

High Resolution Stormwater Runoff Modeling

Climate model output (average cubic feet per second of stormwater runoff) for Atlanta, Georgia in June, July, August at 100m. Left panel presents current conditions; right panel simulates runoff volumes in response to a minimum 60% tree canopy cover per neighborhood. Hues of blue denote higher stormwater runoff volumes.

Neighborhood Heat Risk Scoring based on Health Impact and Adaptive Capacity

Our approach scores every neighborhood based on estimated heat-related mortality in response to current conditions and a measure of neighborhood adaptive capacity (in this example, the prevalence of central air conditioning in the home). Neighborhoods with the highest combined heat vulnerability score are prioritized for heat mitigation programs and investments.

Neighborhood-Specific Heat Management Recommendations

Neighborhood St Trees @ 50% Trees @ 40% Trees @ 50% Trees @ 60% Cool Roofs (SF 1000) Rain Gardens (SF 500) Green Roofs (SF 1000)
Adair Park 735 293 2,254 4,215 1,603 201 222
Ashview Heights 726 - 1,193 2,563 600 49 80
Atkins Park 190 - 441 913 368 42 49
Blandtown 1,206 5,683 9,963 14,242 2,839 754 379
Cabbagetown 785 1,808 3,076 4,343 661 218 88
Candler Park 937 - - 3,551 1,724 165 230
Capitol Gateway 676 1,950 2,612 3,273 301 85 37
Castleberry Hill 1,625 5,532 7,246 8,960 1,266 380 169
Downtown 8,149 22,492 29,848 37,205 6,403 1,470 1,668
Our approach enables neighborhood-specific recommendations on tree planting, cool materials, and other heat management strategies in response to a range of climate adaptation scenarios.